Wuhan new core memory base officially launched on March 28, aimed at memory, goal in 2030 to become the quantity of 1 million pieces of semiconductor giant, and wuhan new core lock's goal is to initially NAND Flash, for wuhan new core, want to use 3 d NAND Flash interpreta dream, a giant among the memory of the dream.
From 3 d NAND Flash corner overtaking ambitions
New plant in wuhan new core, before start the exposure from wuhan new core of high-level conversation in public, you can see that the company in 3 d NAND Flash ambitions. Wuhan new core financial officer Chen Shaomin in 2016 Shanghai SEMICON China memory industry development on the BBS, said: "captures the DRAM development opportunities in Japan, South Korea seized the DRAM and NAND development opportunities, both countries have become the industry leader in memory. Now 3 d NAD technology rise, much starker choices-and graver consequences-in planning and semiconductor as a development focus," we are just came to the development of a "outlet" is bound to grasp the opportunity."
Chief operating officer hong Feng looks 3 d NAND Flash memory for China industrial corner overtaking comes in.
The corner overtaking dream, with the whole of China mission - to fill in the blank of memory industry, China $24 billion in five years, contains large funds, China big fund, China's hubei province, the development of IC industry investment fund fund, invested in hubei province science and technology investment group.
Can really "overtaking corner", however, will still be overturned "corner" seems to be no one speaks.
Reality and ideal
Wuhan new core technology source, is with the United States Spansion (Spansion) technical cooperation to jointly develop 3 d NAND Flash, this also let suspected, wuhan new core and Spansion can through own IP silicon (ipr), success in 3 d NAND Flash beyond individual companies?
Research firm IHS semiconductor value chain director Akira Minamikawa said during an interview with American EETimes, even NAND Flash makers like samsung, Toshiba, has spent a long time, and spent considerable resources, only success, to the development of wuhan new core 3 d NAND Flash is very difficult.
With Moore's law development, plane NAND Flash also approaches the physical limit, it is generally believed that memory miniature to 14 nanometers is difficult to development down, in the 2001 ~ 2006, samsung, flourishing macros to have thought of a few manufacturers such as 3 d, through increased memory stack memory density, but Toshiba 2007 put forward a new Vertical Channel (Vertical Channel) stack, substantial cost reductions and didn't open the 3 d NAND Flash new opportunity, and six years, released in August 2013 is samsung 3 d NAND Flash products - NAND "V", and in the first quarter of 2014 the first measure, other vendors include SK hynix and Toshiba/SanDisk, micron/Intel manufacturers also Allies cooperate, also want to the most recent year, 3 d NAND Flash products have been into mass production.
With the big gap between the technology
Opened the history of wuhan new core and Spansion manufacturing, on the basis of NOR Flash, Spansion, began in 2012 with SK hynix NAND Flash market, NAND technology behind the mainstream manufacturers for at least five years. , Spansion laboratory products stacked in 8 layer, estimates that in 2017 production of 32 layer stack product, but the current stack technology has come to 48 layer, according to research institutions Techinsights finishing manufacturers technical blueprint (Roadmap), in 2018, samsung stacked layers look even has 96 floors, wuhan new core to corner overtaking, might have to bend driving.
, on the other hand, even with the core technology, memory industry as a typical capital intensive and technology intensive industry, and talent search is a problem, a Taiwan declined to be named, analysts said a high-level talent needed for the semiconductor plant at least 2000 people, but the NAND Flash technology mainly concentrated in the United States, Japan and Korea, poaching is not easy, even if poaching from Taiwan, I am afraid, help is not big.
In front of the huge losses
Moreover, parent previously that science and technology capital, analyzes China's foray into the difficulty of memory industry, in addition to land, factory building, Bernstein research institutions forecast, to a place in the NAND Flash market, the initial hit about $20 billion in capital spending from side to side, the product mass production still need to face price is far lower than the cost of the test, even so, hold for ten years, products may be first mover behind industry more than a generation. Bernstein predicts that input NAND industry ten years in front of the face more than $35 billion in losses.
From Bernstein, 11, the latest memory research report, the next two years, in addition to samsung and other manufacturers face tougher profit pressure, SK hynix profit very likely negative growth, from the perspective of supply and demand, according to other research organizations billiton 墣 industry research institute forecast, 2016 NAND Flash the proportion of the supply is greater than the demand will rise from the previous three years, and ASP estimates will also decline.
(Source: extension 墣 industry research institute)
But contains SK hynix and Toshiba expand 3 d NAND Flash production, production capacity is expected in 2018, and 2019 successively, at RBC Capital Markets analyst Amit Daryanani warning, in the industry have turned into a 3 d NAND Flash, average selling price (ASP) will be lower, or even possible prices tumbling, because when the wuhan new core can really achieve the quantity of 300000 2020, 3 d NAND Flash production to 200000 / month goals, will face more bad market conditions.
Ma Yunceng said, "today is very cruel, more brutal tomorrow, the day after tomorrow is very beautiful, most people die in tomorrow night."
With a high level of yesterday, the wuhan new core and innumerable cruel today and tomorrow have to spend, can smooth production, quite a long period of huge capital losses, to meet a wonderful the day after tomorrow, in the test.
