The global semiconductor industry and will present a recession this year? Market Research firm Semico Research the latest forecast report, because the economic downturn, memory price weakness, and lack of market can promote the consumption of the chip "killer application", 2016, I'm afraid a 0.3% recession semiconductor market.
Semico previously forecast 2016 global semiconductor market can grow 3 ~ 4%; And according to the world semiconductor trade statistics organization (number of WSTS), in 2015 the global semiconductor sales decline of 0.2% in 2014. If Semico predictions of the semiconductor market in 2016 and will decline to come true, this will be the market since 2008 and 2009 affected by the global financial storm, the consecutive two years of recession again.
WSTS research institutes and other markets remained for semiconductor industry in 2016 will grow slightly to predict; WSTS think growth was 0.3%, the IC Insights of prediction is 2% growth. These projections of the gap is not large, such as WSTS and IC Insights forecast gap is less than 1%; But people are mentally I'm afraid I still think it is a big gap. The semiconductor industry in 2008 and 2009 for two consecutive years of recession, is in for the first time in the history of the industry; But after 7 years history repeats itself, means that the maturity of the semiconductor industry and reaches a new level.
Semico President Jim Feldhan said that its basic reason lies in lack of stimulating semiconductor consumption increases the driving force; He pointed out that the personal computer (PC) market in a few years ago stalled before 20 years is active power semiconductor demand, while the smartphone market in the first generation of iPhone after take off, played several years semiconductor industry growth engine, but recent smartphone sales growth began to slow. Tablet unit sales also briefly a few years demand for semiconductors contribute, but since last year's recession.
Global semiconductor sales change
"I've heard Qualcomm, Qualcomm, President of interesting metaphor, said that now the world's smart mobile phone number is more than the toilet;" Feldhan said: "I think the key lies in the market is already saturated, we are looking for people who can drive to upgrade the new application of mobile phone."
Feldhan added that the semiconductor industry over the past few years because of smartphone and tablet device market at two digit growth, built up a large capacity; Now the end products unit growth slows, making industry facing excess inventory, drag on the average selling price (ASP).
Semi conductor industry is the last time the two digit growth in 2014, 10%; Feldhan, said the growth of the industry in 2014 was mainly driven by shortage of capacity of the memory chip, memory that year revenue growth as well as the memory chip prices increase, the main is to let the overall semiconductor industry growth, at the same time logic chip sales growth is very small because of the market competition is intense.
Feldhan pointed out: "the fundamental frequency processor and application processor is still very competitive field, and the price of memory chip back to past present recession practice every season." As another market research firm IC Insights prediction, DRAM market revenue of a 8% decline in 2016, the main reason is that the class element estimated average selling prices decline 11%; And the agency will also dimensional half 2016 guide market growth rate forecast, fell to 4% from the original 4%.
And Feldhan will Semico revised down semiconductor industry growth slowing growth rate forecast due to the Chinese market; He said, in fact, a variety of indicators show that nearly every country in this year's GDP will be lower than last year, with the exception of India and South Korea: "when you have integrated all these factors, semiconductor industry this year will find it really hard to imagine is a year of growth."
Don't have the long term, said Feldhan Semico remains bullish on the semiconductor industry in the Internet of things (IoT) in the field of development opportunities, and auto industry demand for chips consumption increases, but actual effect must wait until there is any products comparable to the growth of smartphone in the past few years to emerge: "wish someone would develop a really cool computing applications, let everyone needs 10 nai metric of processors and more memory."
