Electric current of the auto market is still quite low, for oil and oil industry of contempt for electric cars is always quite, the forecast and the future oil production report tend to think that the influence of the electric vehicles can be slightly, however, Bloomberg New Energy Finance (Bloomberg New Energy Finance) view at odds with them, predicted that electric cars will be popular, and cause the next crisis of oil price crash.
Current electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid accounted for only 0.1% of global market, are rare in most countries, and the car is far higher than gasoline vehicles, oil countries organization (OPEC) is very look down on the development of electric vehicles, think to 2040 electric cars also will only account for 1% of the market, the oil giant ConocoPhillips (ConocoPhillips) don't put the electric vehicles as well as one thing, executive Ryan Lance (Ryan Lance), said electric cars within 50 years, even in his life, there will be the actual influence, another oil giant Exxon mobil (Exxon) also looked down upon electric city accounted for only 2%.
Bloomberg new energy finance view completely at odds, however, that will is the age of electric vehicles in the 2020 s. Electric car of the basic economic level gradually to the favorable direction, is one of the most important cost accounts for a considerable proportion of batteries, battery costs fell by 35% in 2015, with the decline in speed, six years electric cars will be more economic benefits than gasoline vehicles, electric vehicles would take off in the market, by 2040, long-range electric cars will cost less than $22000, equivalent to around nt $73, under the price of such people, when the global new car sales are 35% will be electric.
In fact, don't see so far, just a few years, both the Tesla (Tesla), Chevrolet (Chevrolet), Nissan (Nissan), and other automakers are planning to launch a $30000 price of long-range electric cars, equivalent to around nt $, other automakers and IT companies are betting billions of dollars of capital, developing the related technology and cars and expected by 2020, part of the electric car will cost cheaper than gasoline vehicles at the same level of performance is also better, which many electric cars will sales better than gasoline vehicles at the same level, in fact, not until 2020, at present the Tesla Model S sales has more than senior car gasoline at the same level.
2015 electric vehicle sales rose 60%, and tesla expected by 2020 every year growth rate is consistent, in history, this also happened when the ford model T replace the carriage of the growth rate, therefore, in contrast to the oil industry think, electric demand for oil will soon be taking off in an actual effect, bloomberg calculations, if electric cars to 60% annual growth rate of growth, to 2023, the earliest if and to the growth model of accurate calculation, to 2028, the electric cars will reduce the requirement of the 2 million barrels of oil a day, and the 2014 oil price crash, also but is actually exceeds the demand of 2 million barrels.
Shared services become the electric car development
More accurate estimation model of bloomberg new energy finance, the basic idea is the major components of the electric vehicle are calculated respectively, and various costs down, consider the price after the rise of consumer acceptance in the electric, to expect the popularity of electric vehicle speed, more electric cars and gasoline vehicles maintenance cost, and gasoline costs, as well as the most important cost of battery. The battery electric vehicle total manufacturing costs about a third, and the cost of lithium-ion battery are falling fast, capacity of more than $1000 per kilowatt-hour from the past, has dropped to below $400, with bloomberg new energy finance estimates of decline curve, are more likely to fall to $100 to 2030.
On the other hand, electricity to consider, if electric cars really took off, as expected, by 2040, will consume 1.9 billion degrees of electricity, equivalent to 10% of all mankind's electricity in 2015. Electric car itself to the power system, however, can also help, used in the electric vehicle batteries, aging to the capacity of the remaining 80% must be replacing, but there is more than enough to used as energy storage battery USES this time, with the development of electric vehicles, the secondary use batteries will also push for energy storage, thus promoting the use of more effective grid power, also can promote the development of clean energy such as wind power and solar energy, and can make up for all the electric power demand.
But the battery production, not because the increase in the price of raw materials and can't reduce the price? Bloomberg new energy finance calculation, found that by 2030, producing lithium-ion batteries use lithium, nickel, manganese, copper, but also accounts for only 1% of known reserves present upon earth, and in 2030 after the new battery, may be is not the current lithium-ion batteries, but the future of the new battery technology, using different raw materials, creating more shorter and cheaper batteries.
Shared services such as Uber Lyft also will become the electric car driver, sharing mechanism, an increase of the vehicle usage, mileage May 1 year more than 20000 miles, under such a high mileage, gasoline car maintenance costs will be much higher than that of electric cars, electric car battery to save the gasoline cost will also be in direct proportion to increase, making the battery cost amortization down relatively cheaper, bloomberg new energy finance to estimate, therefore, if we Shared services development, success will greatly increase electric city, in 2040 to achieve the new shipments.
Electric cars will collapse in oil prices, however, there are many variables, such as cost reduction, although electric cars itself but also to cooperate more charging station construction to prompt consumers to pay, in addition. If oil prices fell to $20, and no longer back, low oil prices alone will promote the demand for oil, and then offset electric reduce gasoline demand. But anyway, electric cars take off is just the beginning, after a year there will be more electric cars on the road, instead of traditional gasoline vehicles, and further reduce oil demand in traffic, sooner or later one day will put oil on end.
