The international semiconductor industry association (SEMI), according to the statistical data from 2015 to 2016 Taiwan semiconductor will be good, not only in the wafer foundry and encapsulation testing market share improved, continued investment in the history of Taiwanese semiconductor manufacturers in the front-end technology, also can be further boost the development of subsequent years.
SEMI and think, foundries in major investment projects over the next two years to quickly build 14 nano / 16 nanometers capacity, as well as the import under 10 nanometers and 10 nanometers technology. In terms of DRAM factory, in the short term may not add much new capacity, the focal point of investment for 20 nanometers technology import, and adjust product mix to move markets. As for encapsulation testing vendors is a positive investment advanced packaging technologies, such as wafer level packaging (WLP), copper column convex block, system level package (SiP), as well as the action and wearable applications required for other packaging technology.
Even if global boom seems to be not in 2015, but each market institutions are bullish on Taiwan's semiconductor industry growth momentum. Institute industry intelligence network (IEK) estimates, Taiwan semiconductor production up to nt $2016, 2.3364 trillion yuan, slow growth of 4.1%, and the global semiconductor industry to perform well. Taiwan's IC industry in 2015 full-year GDP forecast for 2.2444 trillion yuan, a 1.9% growth in 2014, among them, the IC design industry output value will reach 576.9 billion yuan, a 0.1% growth in 2014. In the IC manufacturing, 2015 annual output can reach 1.2262 trillion yuan, compared with 2014 growth of 4.5%, this will be the first time since 2012 to present single-digit growth. Encapsulation testing industry in 2015, annual output value will reach 441.3 billion yuan, a 2.8% decline in 2014.
Engineering institute panels and said that the growth of the whole industry is less, but still better than the performance of the global industry. As for the future development of Taiwan's semiconductor industry, IEK argues that Taiwan's related components quite a globally competitive technology and development, the future benefit from the Internet of things (IoT), such as family car networking, intelligence and application domains such as health care, to become the next wave of science and technology development trend, Taiwan semiconductor market in the next five years will continue to grow.
It is worth noting that let the global semiconductor industry not negative growth, as well as to promote Taiwan's semiconductor industry is the application of global has a higher growth areas, in addition to Internet applications, the sustainable development of 5 g mobile communication technology also played a part.
5 g/iot injections growth momentum
In recent years, the Internet is popular, not only for the terminal device manufacturers, software service providers... Bring new market opportunities, such as the Internet of things device demands for the low power consumption and miniaturization of the chip, more bring new market opportunity for semiconductor industry. In addition, a new generation of mobile communication 5 g power semiconductor industry from PC, smartphone, tablet device shipments in the dilemma of hole. To grab things smoothly and 5 g mobile communication business opportunities, semiconductor manufacturers including wafer manufacturing/OEM, encapsulation and EDA, have to show the latest technology, such as IBM launched seven leading nanochips; TSMC also declared through the latest fin type field-effect transistors (FinFET) with big data analysis technology, the Internet of things can also play an important role in the Internet market.
Not only that, in Taiwan and the mainland of China communications and mobile processor chip market occupies a place of MediaTek (MediaTek), also for the upcoming 5 g market, and the development of increasingly hot iot application market, the new strategy.
Institute will intelligence research institute (MIC) industry consultant and director said, j., 2016, the Taiwan market sentiment will be better in 2015, is a positive news for the semiconductor industry. MIC prediction of trends in October 2016, "5 g speed wind" proposed by the authors is expounded in 2016 5 g technology development, will be more active since 2015, and can bring more opportunities for the semiconductor industry.
MIC bullish on Taiwan's semiconductor industry growth rate will stabilize in 2016, estimates the overall output value will reach $2.2135 trillion, a 2.4% growth in 2015, the performance will be relatively better than that of the world
(source: MIC)
Further pointed out that, j., according to statistics, per month to use data volume has reached 10 gb of action, which is why the 4 g has just begun, 5 g technology immediately start. The acceleration of 5 g communications technology development can be divided into two aspects, one is a driving force to the market, i.e. the user's behavior change, the operator shall provide anytime, anywhere connection and the ability to support a large number of data transmission; Low latency and low power consumption of Internet service innovation, and import the open platform and virtualization capabilities enhance operator system efficiency, is the cause of development of the market drive 5 g technology.
As for the industry the driving force, including 2020 narrowband transmission distance can transfer several kilometres iot, 6 GHZ 5 g technology with small base stations two-way networking technology... Standards such as the forthcoming, but for the Internet of things or a new generation of sensor and device to create a new application for more action, coupled with the regional standards organization in the gain control 5 g technology, are prompting in 5 g development faster.
In terms of the Internet of things, in fact, the development of the Internet of things and 5 g technology can complement each other. Huge iot devices need to be more high-speed action network support, to achieve; And also because the Internet of things application service need to further enhance efficiency and quality, lead to the acceleration of 5 g technology forward.
Proud not only that, in recent years, the "red" Internet of things application concept, has become a semiconductor, ict... Industry, such as the new "salvation". So if the related products industry development direction are positive and connect with the Internet of things further, the semiconductor industry as well. In response to the Internet of things used a small amount of diversity, sensors to a huge increase in demand, low power requirements, such as the semiconductor industry is also actively developing new products.
Rio 墣, it indicates that the industry institute 2016 semiconductor industry will face the transformation and adjustment, integration of the key role the Internet of things. 2016 semiconductor will face iot impact product characteristics and production cycle, semiconductor manufacturers in addition to shall provide differentiated products, improve market competitiveness, more need to own differentiation transformation to deal with the next wave of wave. In other words, the Internet of things will change the product production cycle, more will make part of the manufacturer's product value due to the difference of using situation under compression, but also create new value block can let there is a new vendor to fill the space, covering new strategies and production tools, etc., so transformation and adjustment will be 2016 semiconductor industry is the primary issue.
Grab a business opportunity The semiconductor industry show avatar
MIC HongChunHui industry consultant and director of the stressed that the personal computer, the 3 c product semiconductor rather rely on kinetic energy to slow the growth of these ever, even a recession, in 2015 the global semiconductor market is only a 1.2% growth in 2014, the output value of $339.9 billion. Looking ahead to 2016, the downstream terminal PC industry, global smartphone growth slowing, as well as the memory of the supply is greater than the demand factors, such as the global semiconductor market has a high chance to present the fall by about 2.2%.
However, Taiwan's semiconductor industry is due to the wafer foundry industry has the advantage of advanced process, and to maintain high growth momentum, in addition, the memory industry for process transformation, accelerate the market stability, further to promote Taiwan's semiconductor industry overall stability returns, with the global semiconductor market growth rate is roughly same, about 1% growth.
HongChunHui, said Taiwan wafer generation industry through the development of advanced process, leading distance between, so the overall growing more optimistic; Memory IC manufacturing decline is slow in 2015, this is due to the relevant manufacturers in Taiwan memory advanced conversion process is slow, in 2016, is expected to catch up with the international companies and make market development tends to be stable.
However, it is worth noting that rely too much on the Chinese mainland, Taiwan IC design industry is also influenced by the overall downturn of mainland China, companies need to seek new market advantage, prompting Taiwan chip companies compete to development of the Internet of things development platform. HongChunHui pointed out, including mediatek, Realtek (Realtek) were positive for the Internet of things application development solutions, drive the Taiwan semiconductor industry transformation, and the emerging markets such as India, southeast Asia, Russia and other regional layout, reduce our dependence on the 3 c products, and new opportunities for development in mainland China market.
Mediatek's vice chairman and general manager xie qingjiang, said in 2015, mediatek has new progress in various aspects, in 2016, in addition to change the existing management architecture, in view of the long-term evolution plan (LTE), 5 g and the Internet of things, also can have further arrangement.
Mediatek executive vice general manager and chief operating officer together Zhu Shangzu further illustrate, mediatek support LTE Cat. 6 and dual single chip carrier aggregation of high order system platform "the sunrise force" has won many international adoption of smart phone companies. Even if the global smartphone market less optimistic, mediatek by -- - in the United States to develop new markets, and adhere to the "two more a less" - core chip, multimedia, less power consumption, design concept, improve the user experience, as well as maintain three Cluster computing architecture (Tri - Cluster) chip. Combined with 2016 ~ 2017 mediatek plans to enhance of the specifications of the Modem (Modem), in order to satisfy the demands of high order smartphone, further reduce the distance with leading manufacturers. By means of a multi-pronged strategy, mediatek in 4 g in the future market will be expected to continue to expand market share.
Mediatek independently the chip architecture, such as the Tri - Cluster also will continue to cooperate with international ARM (ARM), through the use of ARM core architecture and optimization technology, give full play to the "differentiation". Zhu Shangzu thought, development of autonomous or involuntary architecture is not the key, "chip products can meet the needs of customers and users expect is king". Samsung (Samsung), Apple (Apple), millet (Mi), Huawei, Huawei and Lenovo (Lenovo), and other smart phone makers began to make supply for their own brand mobile phone processor, mediatek also don't think the business will cause very big effect. Zhu Shangzu said, on the occasion of the smartphone slow growth, mobile phone maker, in addition to the samsung and apple, should won't invest more resources for the processor's research and development, so as not to cause a poor return on investment, to enhance general mobile phone costs.
In the development of the 5 g chip, qingjiang xie stressed that the 2018 experimental 5 g action network to run; The 2020 Tokyo Olympic Games 5 g technology will also be a formal business, visible global in 5 g technology evolution is clear direction. In 2015, mediatek has 5 g technology standard for discussion, is expected to invest more money for research and development of 5 g chip.
In the layout of the Internet market, mediatek through investment, and also the development of new Internet platform and participate in the iot standard alliance, period can grab new business opportunities. Thank qingjiang revealed, in a wearable device, the family, the wisdom of medical, automotive, unmanned aerial vehicles (uavs), such as the Internet of things platform, mediatek has all had the ink.
Mediatek executive vice general manager and the common operating officer Chen guang zhou said that the company not only actively developing smartphone platform, and through processing platform research and development base in smartphones, extending outward into the field of Internet of things. Among them, mediatek and Sony (Sony), jointly developed by the Google Android intelligent TV, already on the market in 2016 is expected to have more a giant attestation, built-in mediatek platform of intelligent home products, the future 1 ~ 2 years, mediatek absent will not be in the home security monitoring field.
Industry merger and acquisition will become the norm
2016 semiconductor industry merger and acquisition will still continue. HongChunHui thinks, because the market has become mature, emerging Internet related applications require interdisciplinary integration, leading to the global semiconductor and electronic information industry in recent years the agitation and enduring. Through merger and acquisition strategy, in order to quickly fill JiangZiShen technology, will be able to run across many areas of Internet applications, the extension promote own product lines, product integration degree, thus providing the most complete solution.
From the Chinese mainland and Taiwan semiconductor manufacturers also in this wave of merger and acquisition, looking for the best "target", in a horizontal merger and vertical integration. Silicon including day actively in the moonlight; Violet light of mainland China also actively expand outward, not only the phase seal factory, Taiwan IC design industry, more to look into the ISSI, star chippac, Omnivision and other international companies.
HongChunHui reminds, mainland China domestic IC design, wafer foundry, IC testing industry chain has a certain degree of development, in order to reinforcing memory system made in the field of inadequacy, wanted to use this official colour dense purple light company, tried to merger and acquisition Micron (Micron), but it failed, in view of the silicon product acquisition is also so, may change in the form of investment in the future to further cooperation. Violet light of the "big" also attract including Intel (Intel), Qualcomm, Qualcomm), international manufacturers such as further strategy alliance with China local manufacturers.
China continues to fill independent semiconductor supply chain gap
(source: companies, institute for MIC, December 2015)
In the face of mainland Chinese violet light menacing, HongChunHui advice, although Taiwan players retained its lead, and the accumulation of rich experience of semiconductor related, however, Taiwan semiconductor related manufacturers should take the lead in the new IC application and market development, and in the IC testing, system design and memory areas, whether to stop or cooperation with China, should use elastic co-opetition, to stay ahead and stop the offensive across the river.
Mediatek was purple light "name", repeated mediatek and violet light did not have any contact, even the high-level never meet. Qingjiang xie stressed that in the face of the semiconductor industry and has become the norm, mediatek will open and happy state of mind, does not rule out future choice can provide maximum value for the enterprise itself and the shareholders of enterprises, to become partners, to seek the biggest market opportunities.
The market is not optimistic Taiwan factory there is still a battle to be fought
Overall, although the Taiwan semiconductor industry boom "kam", however, sentiment is reversal may occur in the second half of 2016. HongChunHui, thinks that in 2015 the global information system to present the size of the market recession has become a reality, but the server market is relatively stable, even may further grow up. Part of the semiconductor industry will be affected by the global market performed poorly, especially memory with the IC design industry, likely recession, so find and investment on a niche market, Taiwan semiconductor industry is one of the important subjects in the second half of 2016.
