According to the institute for industry intelligence research institute (MIC) statistics, Taiwan semiconductor industry as a whole in 2015 output value of 2015 nt dollars, edging up 0.9%. Growth rate in 2016 will stabilize, forecasts the overall output value will reach 2.2135 trillion nt dollars, a 2.4% growth in 2015, the overall performance is expected to relatively better than that of the world.
In view the development of the global semiconductor industry, 2015 affected by mainland China market growth slows, and computer systems, appeared a significant decline in smartphone growth momentum slowed sharply, lead to the global semiconductor industry compared with 2014, only slightly to grow by 1.2% in 2015, about $339.9 billion. Forecast in 2016 continued to be two shipment end product performance, the influence of the global semiconductor industry production value, compared with 2015, would be likely to decline by about 2.2%, amounted to only $332.4 billion.
Institute will HongChunHui MIC industry adviser, said if the longer the semiconductor industry trend, all the year round in 2016 observation of MIC is 2016 semiconductor business is still the risk of falling. In terms of application products, in addition to the server, the growth of the other end products may not, in general are falling. 3 c industry matures, the whole shipments have been reduced, in the end product shipments can not obviously improve, the growth of the semiconductor market is still limited.
MIC is also observed in the global market economy condition, the international organization when the market report in October 2015, the IMF's forecast for 2016 global growth rate is still 3.6%, although the number is better than 3.1% in 2015, but the number than in mid - 2015's forecast growth rate is a bit poor.
More noteworthy is that the advanced countries like the United States, the economic growth situation is good, but the uncertainty of mainland China is very high. China's economic growth rate is 7.3% in 2014, in 2015, the IMF forecast has fallen to 6.8%, and in 2016, the IMF in December 2015, when an estimated 6.3%.
Because of this, no matter from the terminal products in the market, or from the point of view of regional economy, MIC combines several key factors influencing the semiconductor market, think about the future of the semiconductor market outlook is still to maintain prudent degrees. Short-term seasonal inventory adjustment, of course, the condition can let the market have a brief rebound, but the longer term, as in 2016 and 2016, semiconductor need looking for subsequent growth power, is still as services.
Figure 1 is 2008 ~ 2016 global semiconductor market scale, figure 2 is 2009 ~ 2016 Taiwan semiconductor industry output value. Figure 1 shows the 2015 global semiconductor market growth rate of 1.2%, relative to the global market, Taiwan semiconductor market growth slightly low, only 0.9%. HongChunHui, the main factors should be from memory. Due to the relatively weak downstream demand, therefore since 2015, as the price of DRAM memory that has been falling. HongChunHui think for Taiwan manufacturers, snow and frost, advanced in the process of transformation, to Taiwan and international companies, progress is relatively slow, so relatively in plants could also affect in order.
Figure 1. 2008 ~ 2016 global semiconductor market scale
Figure 2. 2009 ~ 2016 Taiwan semiconductor industry output value
In the part of IC design, whether Taiwan manufacturers have affected by red supply chain or be replaced? According to the observation of MIC, in the middle and lower order products of mobile phone related, do have may be affected by IC design company in mainland, but HongChunHui pointed out that the larger impact should be from the mainland economy, the economic development in the mainland of China after clearly slowing, it can be seen that the mobile phone to be hit hard demand; In this case, the Taiwan IC design industry in the mainland market management has also been a certain degree of influence; So the economy can be observed from the mainland to Taiwan IC design industry in the mainland market development of a key.
Taiwan IC design industry in the future, of course, 2, 3 years will gradually under the threat of China IC design company. Figure 3 shows the Taiwan IC design industry is concentrated, MIC, according to Taiwan IC design industry as a whole and effect, the 2015 top ten IC design company production value accounting for almost 78% of Taiwan IC design industry, including the number one cause of mediatek is accounted for the proportion of more than 40%. MIC said China IC design industry is developing rapidly, in addition to intellectual development type mobile phone for the future development key, panel driver IC industry for Taiwan manufacturers potential competitors.
Figure 3. Taiwan IC design industry block analysis
In the part of wafer foundry, TSMC is still maintain the height of the lead. HongChunHui pointed out that whether or regional markets in the global market, Taiwan's IC design industry in advanced process, have a certain degree of lead. Believe in the next generation process, TSMC can still maintain a certain degree of advantage.
Figure 4. The top five foundries business productivity change and influence
Figure 5 is 2013 ~ 2016, the world's major testing foundry country city share changes, Taiwan seal shown in the figure of manufacturer's lead in technology and production capacity situation, performance is superior to the global market; China, on the other hand, the government policy and the local market, driven by rapid development of coupled with merger and acquisition efficiency, its testing for rapid ascension, but advanced technology development and yield stability is still the key for long-term development
