To the Netherlands well think pu Semiconductor (NXP Semiconductors) buying American Freescale Semiconductor (Freescale Semiconductor) is a start, Mr Anwar technology (Avago Technologies) acquisition of Broadcom (Broadcom), Intel (Intel) acquisition of Altera (Altera), Western Digital (Western Digital) acquisition of SanDisk (SanDisk) - in 2015, the Semiconductor industry continually appear large enterprise purchase amount of more than 1 trillion yen to buy items.

As China's state-backed investment company purple light group in western capital data, buying American Micron Technology (Micron Technology) news, "China's semiconductor" presence in 2015 rapid promotion for a year.

Turning to Japan, as Japan's domestic semiconductor, Toshiba is turmoil because of accounting fraud. Renesas electronics current performance despite an improving trend, but the long-term outlook is uncertain.

For the semiconductor industry in the future balance of power, the problem such as the future of the Japanese manufacturing, all-powerful once operators how look upon? Reporters interviewed before will reach the memory on behalf of the director of the President, now the Consulting company "WIN Consulting" sakamoto death-squad representative director. (interviewer: big chun under a)

- what do you think Mr Sakamoto semiconductor industry trends now?

Has been a long time ago I said, "don't squeeze into the world's top three could not survive". What has happened is that "only the top two can survive". Although elpida entered the top three, but it's still not enough.

Semiconductor companies to survive in the future, should be divided into four types. Are like America Intel and qualcomm "has a strong IP enterprise", like TI (Texas instruments) and SONY (SONY) as "enterprise with independent technical experience", like South Korea's Samsung Electronics, Samsung Electronics) "has a low cost manufacturing technology enterprises", and as Taiwan's TSMC (TSMC) "have overwhelming capacity of enterprise".

And has low power techniques and TSV silicon (hole), and other advanced packaging technology, differentiation elements such as one-stop service enterprises.

In the world semiconductor market, Japan's share has more than 50%. Now estimated that only about 15%. Is likely to fall below 10% over the next five years.

In the future 10 years, in the semiconductor industry in Japan, can survive estimates only SONY's image sensor. In addition, depends on Toshiba's action.

- Toshiba hit by the accounting fraud, not only on the NAND flash memory business years of cooperation sandisk also acquired by western digital.

Now, I think Toshiba in the most difficult. About the NAND flash memory, Intel is ready to put into production in China. Intel's strategy, it should be give up by NAND profit, make the NAND completely fair. If not, they will not have to enter China.

For Intel, as long as you can by NAND peripheral controller, application processor and IoT (Internet of Things) to maintain operation. With the withdrawal of DRAM market strategy is the same.

Samsung and Korea SK Hynix (SK Hynix) already has a production base in China, with the increase of Intel, will form the pattern of the three large NAND manufacturers production. NAND is a collection of various technical experience, that is to say, these technology experience will flow into China. Sandisk may also (through injecting its parent company (group) in the western data of technical experience to China.

If that happens, NAND price will naturally fall sharply. The signs of DRAM has not yet been formally put into production in China. Therefore, relative to the DRAM and NAND prices would tumble. Toshiba no DRAM, if you don't take measures in advance, estimate the situation will be very difficult.

Semiconductor market is expected to be began to decline in 2016. Because to play a leading role in the Chinese and the smartphone market has been down. Killer, killer countries now is blank.

- not only to accept foreign investment enterprises in China, we are also going to under the support of the government, to realize the integrity of the semiconductor. Sources say purple light group is investing many semiconductor companies, also plans to buy the light. Is said to be liquid crystal panel giants China Beijing Oriental Technology Group (indicate Technology Group) will also be put into production of DRAM.

I think China's strategy is first to other companies to buy (semiconductor business and technology), if I buy more difficult, the talent poached.

When China's realization of semiconductor integrity, be a huge advantage is not artificial cost, but the depreciation cost. Semiconductor and FPD depreciation cost in the proportion of the total cost of the very large. If the government to help ease the burden of depreciation, the enterprise will get good profit.

But in China, this kind of method applies to indicate companies such as LCD production, but is not suitable for semiconductor manufacturing. (China's large semiconductor foundry enterprise) SMIC's strength is too weak. SMIC semiconductor factories because of excessive construction, now the factory has become a hot potato.

Samsung is in a few branches centralized production, although Intel network scattered, but the added value of products enough. If your production base in China for centralized, continue to maintain the situation, foreground is not optimistic, I'm afraid.

Even so, China's presence in the semiconductor industry will certainly increase in the future.

Worrying - Japan's semiconductor industry. Electronic industry also continues. Where is the problem?

President of change is a big problem. If the President is 3 years for the unit, it is impossible to develop strategy in 5 years, 10 years later. And the company's strategy is not adhere to the five years is not sprout.

President of the reward is much less than Europe and the United States. European and American business executives despite having huge assets, but still active in the first line.

The new President is designated by the incumbent President is strange. As a result, against absolute when not on the President. Words, Japanese companies has not been deposed President of mechanism.

In today's Japan's semiconductor and electronics industry, almost no a bright operators. Like (softbank) Mr. Sun, (uniqlo) Mr Yanai dreamer in Japan too.

- Mr Sakamoto leadership's elpida memory after bankruptcy was taken over by the light. Elpida management after the big change?

Since Appleton (died in a plane accident in February 2012, the beauty of creation CEO Steve Appleton) died, executives do business in the past that would be disappeared from micron. By setting up a lot of middle management positions, the responsibility of the business division has become blurred.

When I was in, will reach, mass production time is about half a year later than samsung. Now the gap has widened. This is because increased the unnecessary work? I was a little worried. Perhaps there will be disagreements, but I think, semiconductor companies still need to be able to drive employees by strong personality of leadership.

About Appleton, I thought of one thing, the er shall after bankruptcy, then meguiar's executive once said to me: "Mr Sakamoto, we also want to almost bankrupt". At that time, Appleton seems to want to invest in a factory, but the CFO said: "now can't spending cash", did not agree. At that time, it is because the left cash, meguiar was able to escape.

CEO, CFO, as well as the CTO can work independently, which is of great significance to the enterprise management. CEO may not be technical experts, but the important thing is can you discuss with CTO, CFO seriously.

- in Japan's semiconductor and electronic industry, whether the future will be extended to other industries? Such as the strength is relatively strong automobile industry now.

Cars must also can appear the same trend. Have you ever sat Tesla (Tesla Motors) car? I have a chance to sit, like "running computer room". Toyota is able to make cars like that? The interior and outer pack is full of imagination.

The Google (Google) developed a car, Apple (Apple) should also be developed in the United States. As a result, samsung will follow up. By that time, depends on the Toyota way.

In some areas, Japan is also have a chance. Such as health care and medical treatment. We can build a mechanism for monitoring health at home and overseas export this mechanism. The hidden opportunities. And the robot.

- in an interview two years ago, you said "want to play a role of bridge between industry in Japan and overseas". Now, you pay attention to the development of the industry as a consultant, will in the future to participate in the enterprise the management?

This should be possible. Now I received many invitations.