To determine FinFET, FD SOI and planar semiconductor process respective market territory it is too early...

Although production still is very little, all empty insulation overlying silicon (fully depleted silicon - on - insulator, FD - SOI) process may following Globalfoundries plans announced 12 nanometers (reference) after rapid growth; Market research institutions and International Business Strategies (IBS), a senior analyst at Handel Jones said, Samsung (Samsung) or will be in Shanghai, China set up a new fabs will the FD - SOI process technology, is one of the important factors.

For Britain's (Intel), samsung, TSMC (TSMC) FinFET process that is used by the company can provide the highest performance and lowest power consumption; But Jones pointed out that in the day when 14 nanometers, FD - SOI each logic gate can cost 16.8%, lower than the FinFET also its design cost about 25% less, and reduce the risk of the need to redesign.

In addition in Shanghai recently attended a FD - Jones of SOI technology conference pointed out that FD - SOI can have through the unique ability to the power consumption of bias (biasing) dynamic management; The process but also because of obvious higher than FinFET cutoff frequency (cut - off frequency), and can bring more forceful support for the RF: "we believe that the smartphone application processor and modem crystal will adopt the FD - 12 nanometers SOI process, instead of 10 nanometers or possible FinFET seven nanometers.

IBS, points out that at 14 nanoscale node, FD - SOI wafer costs 16.8% lower than the FinFET

Jones estimates that if the process can only be obtained from Globalfoundries, may yield growth to occupy a quarter of the global advanced node wafer foundry business; But: "if samsung in adding into the important moment, I think there are 40 ~ 50% / 14/16 of 10 nanometers node foundry business may be covered by FD - SOI include ─ ─ samsung is a wild card (wild card)."

China is another wild card players, especially a is Shanghai to build new fabs ─ ─ it is affiliated with Shanghai vander-waalsforces (Hua Li) of fabs (second) can be obtained from the Chinese government $5.8 billion in subsidies; Jones says the new fabs haven't choice to adopt what kind of process, but: "reasonable possibility they will choose FD - SOI."

Vander-waalsforces is now operating in the 12 inch fabs monthly production capacity of about 30000 pieces; The company is huahong (Hua Hong) one member of the group, also belong to the group currently has a 8 "fabs hongli Semiconductor (Grace Semiconductor).

Don't over claims to be China owns the most advanced technology of wafer generation industry, semiconductor manufacturing international (SMIC), is unlikely to the FD - SOI process; Jones said the company focus on the production of High - K metal gate and polycrystalline silicon 28 metric cheng: "they do is the mainstream right choice." But he also believes that China's attempt to complex FinFET process with TSMC competition, I'm afraid will fall after a long distance; TSMC has 500 engineers concentrate on the FinFET design.

As a whole, to determine FinFET, FD SOI and planar semiconductor process map it is too early to their respective market; Jones can estimate is the overall effectiveness of the FD - SOI technology market (total available market, not market share.

FD SOI process - an estimated $17 billion in 2017, the efficient market, but also not sure actually can generate much revenue

Existing 22 nanometers FD SOI wafer shipments - estimated at 60000 ~ 100000 pieces per month, overall 28 nai metric Cheng Jing round shipments for 300000 pieces; Jones said that Globalfoundries is expected before 2019 is not expected to begin with the customer in 12 nanometers FD - SOI process on cooperation: "they should try to speed up."

And IBS expected, all sorts of different types of 28 nai metric process will still is the largest market, estimates that by 2025 will maintain the output of 300000 wafers per month; In Jones to attend the meeting in Shanghai, there is a samsung executives showed a slides, said the company believes 28 nanometers will remain single transistor cost is lower than other nodes.

The long term, various types of 28 nano crystal plane electricity system will still be the mainstream market

That is to say, the FinFET process has great potential for growth; Apple (Apple) is said to be using TSMC A10 16 ff + process production iPhone 7 in the processor, is expected to continue to use TSMC 10 nanometers FinFET process, production may start production next year iPhone 8 use A11 processor.

Jones said: "Apple is actively promote next year to 10 nanometers metric chip production process, and the year after 7 nai metric process; and TSMC also actively invested capital spending to catch up with progress ─ ─ or may delay a season or two quarters, but will realize the mass production."

IBS, estimates FinFET process logic gates of each cost because of its complexity and low yield, can in each node will rise slightly; But Jones said that Intel has a different point of view, and according to the company for each node of the transistors costs will continue to decline: "that need to be fixed yield (constant yields), it's a good target but it is not easy to achieve, I don't know whether Intel's 14 nanoscale node has reached the goal."

As to TSMC is unlikely to adopt FD - SOI technology, Jones said the company will respond to the competition pressure from the process: "they may have to actively promote 7 metric, and provides a combined with RF, embedded non-volatile memory, and use its expensive but other outstanding InFlo technology made the I/O function blocks more chip solutions."