2015 will not be easy for LCD panel makers, companies caused by the bluffs overlooking panel prices fell and business performance. Fortunately, the LCD panel prices rallied in the second quarter of this year.
Consulting group intelligence survey data show that with the coming of the August demand season, LCD TV panel market shortage increasingly serious, the panel prices showed a trend of accelerating.
"Daily economic news" reporter noted that in the out of stock at the same time, the panel makers are close the production line. Recently, the South Korea's samsung announced by the end of the closing of the G7 production line, which accounted for 4% of global capacity large size panel production line, is shut down the largest in the history of panel manufacturing factory, this will lead to large size panel only small capacity increased by 1% in 2017, failed to keep pace with demand growth of 5% ~ 6%. And in the case of panel prices continue to rise, panel makers performance in 2016 is expected to be out of last year's slump.
Panel a tighter supply
After 2015 years of precipice type fall, LCD market recovered sharply in the second quarter. When a slightly carefully, an analyst told the daily economic news "reporter," in the second quarter of this year and in the third quarter panel prices rebound in May to a certain extent, but it is hard to have the motive force to continue to rebound, basic maintain 'look flat."
Group of mental consultation, according to data from the mainstream of 32 inches panel average price rose sharply at $5.5 in July, August is still a shortage of supply, panel factory under the drive of profit, to promote 32 inches panel prices continue to rise, are expected to rise to $7, or widened; By reducing the supply demand and 40 inches expected effect, is expected to 40 inches in August and 43 inches panel prices will speed up, or about $10; In August and 55 of 50 inches panel prices have some growth, but bigger size 65 inch panel average is still maintained.
Obviously, the LCD panel prices strong rebound in the third quarter is significantly more than market expectations. Wide hair negotiable securities analysis, since this year, on the one hand, the Taiwan panel factory production by the negative impact of the earthquake; On the other hand, it tries to use thin glass to replace the original use of thick glass, and increase surface panel production, resulting in a decline in yield and therefore supply tight in the first half of the panel. After entering in the third quarter, the machine factory to ready for the season, demand release faster, causing prices to rise faster. Inflationary expectations, meanwhile, has been formed, will lead to increased plant stock.
Northeast securities analyst cantona said in a research report, except the accidental factors such as earthquake, panel tension between supply and demand is also inevitable factors, "on the one hand, the small and medium size panel technology from the LCD to OLED upgrade; on the other hand terminal product large size, high resolution, Incell panel permeability contour specifications continue to rise, the number of panels factory unit base board output has been falling."
Due to the rise of Chinese panel companies in Japan and South Korea panel companies face strong competition, on the part size panel is gradually in the exit, the tight supply situation compounded panel. Sharp 8 generations of 32 inches panel production line shut down at the end of last year, panasonic himeji line in August of this year is expected to shut down, 8.5 generation of samsung for TV panels about 1 production line will be shut down at the end of the year for small and medium size OLED.
Superposition of huatai securities believes that the downstream demand picks up with the trend of large size, the industry as a whole is in shortage state, common to the electron panel production enterprise to the goods.
Panel makers are expected to get rid of the weakness
In 2015, many companies caused by the bluffs overlooking panel prices fall and performance plummeted, and in the first quarter of this year panel prices are still not obvious signs.
TCL group reported, according to a quarterly in 2016 net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies is 261 million yuan, down 65.4% year-on-year, its thought is one of the main reasons for the decline in LCD TV panel prices continue downward since 2015, because of the price differences with the same period last year during the reporting period, huaxing photoelectric profit fell 67.6% year on year; And domestic giant another panel also difficult for boe, the 2016 semi-annual performance forecast, according to the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies for losses of $500 million to $500 million, compared with the same period last year profit of 1.95 billion yuan.
At present, the panel prices continue to rise brought panel enterprise performance shuguang, a good sustainable? Cicc estimates that panel prices in the second half of 2016 is expected to continue to rebound, the panel cycle will enter the recovery stage, and will continue into 2017, rather than the seasonal rebound.
Huatai securities research in TCL group, ask how big is the performance of the elastic panel prices, TCL group, according to the reply, "if in 32 inches, for example, according to the output of 1.6 million pieces per month to calculate, can according to the shipments to multiply rises to calculate elastic performance."
According to this calculation, were it not for the subsequent rise in price situation, only 32 inches panel in July of $5.5 or calculation, only in the second half of 32 inches panel, TCL group, profits will be increased by more than $50 million, and other panel makers will benefit as well.
In the face of the LCD panel prices, is different from the panel makers, downstream of the electron competition strategy could face adjustment. Previously, a color TV industry to the "daily economic news" reporter said, since April this year, after the understanding to the panel prices, worried about the damage is too big, did not continue to follow up on price.
