Set network news, Jul. 20, 2016 - solar market demand urgent aspic, the third quarter order visibility is poor, wafers, cells, component inventory backlog. TrendForce dramexchange's brand new energy research EnergyTrend (dramexchange new energy grid) research assistant manager Lin Yan said, in the face of marketable infinite market, supply chain prices will continue to test in July, among them, the cell to the hardest hit of the season, prices reached a record low. As this year's large-scale expansion led to a glut on the industry, EnergyTrend August forecast solar market could more pessimistic, also difficult to appear in the third quarter.
Lin Yan capacity, points out that due to the installation of overheating, during the first half of the fourth quarter of mainland Chinese demand will rebound than usual to slowly and gently, around the recent inventory accumulation may allow for the ascent of the difficulty of the fourth quarter of the price picks up, the continuous expansion of new capacity makes the future companies will face a tough season annual test, in addition to the active authors mention effect, the development strategy of enterprise is still in accordance to the market rapidly changing primary task.
Supply chain overall price, the cost of battery line
Market is still strong demand for polysilicon, polysilicon of recent price most support section. In July China price of high-grade steady at RMB 140 ~ 145 / kg, there are still support expected prices in August. Outside of mainland China market, due to interference makes polysilicon price slightly without trade barriers.
Single, polysilicon factory still full grain or moving rate, but the cell rapidly depreciated, led to the recent silicon prices also fell significantly. July polycrystalline silicon slice in Taiwan generally price US $0.75 ~ 0.77 / PC, mainland China about RMB 5.6 5.8 / PC. Lin Yan said, compared with the cell into negative gross margin price already, polycrystalline silicon slice of the decline in relatively slowly, EnergyTrend forecast silicon section in late July and August will have obvious price pressure, subsequent polysilicon prices have a better chance below US $0.74 / PC.
China is relatively strong demand single crystal, enables monocrystalline silicon slice is still to keep the balance of supply and demand, not willing to work with polycrystalline monocrystalline silicon chip manufacturers like widening gap, so the recent significant price. July China monocrystalline silicon chip prices at about RMB 6.45 / PC, and polycrystalline silicon slice to maintain in the price of RMB 0.6 / PC, Taiwan monocrystalline silicon chip prices from US $0.88 / PC last test. Monocrystalline silicon chip cost competitive because of China's mainland, is expected to follow-up with polycrystalline price adjustment strategy remains the same.
Market cold and cheerless, Taiwan cell costs still cannot compete with China battery piece cost. July although battery slice of the market price has fallen to US $0.26 / W, the mainland factory still can tolerate more low-cost competition, in the "to do more to" situation, Taiwan cell factory every move rate decline significantly than mainland China manufacturers, generally falls between 6 ~ eighty percent, forecast in August cell could still down the quantity and price trends. In addition, single crystal battery prices have plunged in recent China, even if the prices of single crystal cell is cliff diving, Taiwan manufacturers still because of the high cost, cannot undertake the majority of orders, volumes.
Components, Hemlock, SolarWorld battle added in, the United States between double and follow-up the uncertainty of the market, but the game between the two countries is difficult to change in the short term because of a single manufacturer and instantaneous changes, so the industry to stay temporarily, first in industry basic supply-and-demand off-season market. Lin Yan capacity, points out that due to the components for the expansion of the most heated section this year, the inventory is rapidly accumulated, and lead to the market prices fall synchronization, in addition to the price is always high outside the United States, Europe and Japan market, the rest of the price is more common to US $0.44 0.47 / W.
