OLED panel this year in the mobile market spread faster, even the apple announced that the next generation of mobile phones will adopt flexible screens. But even rigid OLED panel are in short supply at present, domestic OLED industry chain is not yet perfect, flexible OLED listed in time.

OLED near or far away from us? Held in shenzhen on July 1, the "2016 China international OLED industry conference", the group of wisdom consulting ya-qin li, deputy general manager, expects the flexible OLED panel until at least 2018 years later to the market.

Ya-qin li warned at the same time, in the face of rapidly changing industry trends, China needs to appropriately increase the investment in the OLED panel, at the same time, the key is to improve the OLED upstream industry chain layout, materials and equipment and to prolong the lifecycle of the liquid crystal industry as much as possible.

OLED panel output value of 12 billion dollars this year

The world's main panel makers do in different occasions in recent years the preaching of OLED technology. Such as, samsung display folding phones, folded is 5.5 inches, opens into a 7.8 -inch screen. LGD also shows flexible mobile, vehicle-mounted screen; Domestic to indicate (BOE), and glow electric also shows flexible OLED screen.

From the movements of capacity of intelligence, according to data from the 2015 AMOLED capacity area grew 45%, mainly is the LGD turn 8.5 generation of LCD panel line capacity to OLED contribution. 2016 investment in equipment renovation has slowed, rising gradually from 2017 to 2018. At its peak in 2018 due to the equipment investment, so the annual growth rate of 54%.

Look from the absolute, AMOLED in 2018 annual capacity will be more than 10 million square meters, consists of LTPS (low temperature polycrystalline silicon) OLED OLED and large size. From the point of structure, future growth mainly comes from the LTPSOLED, just phone use AMOLED panel capacity.

In the next few years, AMOLED investment will be repeated peak, but still relatively low in the global panel production capacity. Special 2018 years ago, with six generations line capacity is given priority to, in the huge display panel production capacity in the proportion is still low. As the AMOLED high generation capacity to join after 2018, bizet area in 2019 is expected to be above 10%, it should be 11% ~ 11% by 2020.

AMOLED panel is still a seller's market. Group of wisdom, a consultancy, estimate, global AMOLEDLTPS panel sales amount is about $12 billion in 2016, is expected to account for all sales display panels will be about 10% ~ 11%. Increase with the increase of production capacity and product structure, by 2020 the amount of this part is expected to gradually rise, in 2020 to $17 billion.

Because of the rigid AMOLED panel average unit price is low gradually trend. Sales growth have capacity is growing so quickly. Ya-qin li said, AMOLED panel inside sales of $12 billion this year, about $3.6 billion from the contribution of flexible AMOLED panel, proportion is between 20% ~ 30%.

From the market, investment, cost, OLED is getting closer and closer to that we have.

First, rapid market penetration. Ya-qin li predicts that in the fourth quarter of this year, China's smartphone market AMOLED panel will be close to thirty percent, the permeability of more than 20% of global market penetration. Earlier, the media has reported, in 2018, the company will feature extensive use of AMOLED panel. Besides apple, in the Chinese market the biggest AMOLED mobile phone users of panel is expected to OPPO. Samsung actively promote AMOLED panel sales in the Chinese market in recent years, OPPO, VIVO was used as a strategic partner.

Like the OPPO, AMOLED panel in its mobile penetration of 20% last year, to reach close to 50% this year, is growing very quickly. "Because of AMOLED is a seller's market, supply and demand will determine the ecology of the AMOLED." Ya-qin li said. Last year, huawei and OPPO decidedly different, AMOLED panel in its mobile phone penetration is almost zero, maintain at 5% in 2016.

Second, investment. "Said ya-qin li, six and six generation the following line to the global mobile phone panel capacity, AMOLED by 2018 accounted for about 40%, close to 2020 accounted for 50%. Considering the factors such as yield, shipments of OLED proportion will be slightly lower, is expected in 2020 under 6 and 6 generation line of mobile phone panel shipments than between 40% ~ 45%.

Third, the cost and the LCD (LCD) is close to. "This is to let the domestic industry was very surprised, rigid AMOLED costs down quickly, especially from 2014 to now." Ya-qin li said, AMOLED costs fell sharply, 5.5 -inch FHD (full hd) of liquid crystal cell phone screen costs fell less quickly.

Due to the different structure principle, AMOLED accounts for the material cost was much lower than LCD, LCD accounted for close to 6 into the cost of materials, but the cost of the AMOLED accounted for only 40% ~ 40% of the material. The other major is depreciation and amortization cost and yield. "Leading enterprises in the early investment of AMOLED production line, part of the production line of depreciation will soon be over. That is to say, accounted for nearly 30% of depreciation cost would be falling fast, rapid decrease in cost of AMOLED."

Ya-qin li is expected: "the OLED panel cost will gradually close to the cost of LCD panels, even in the foreseeable future is lower than the cost of LCD. This will be the LCD industry one of the biggest challenges facing, how to maintain their competitiveness is the key."

Flexible OLED is far from

However, OLED appears to be far from well.

First of all, the arrival of the flexible panel not so fast. "Fixed curvature has achieved mass production of flexible, to 2018 years ago, OLED technology development should be the direction of the around fixed curvature panel specification improvement, specifications, yield improvement. So, fixed curvature AMOLED gradually incline to mainstream in the market will happen in the next few years." Ya-qin li said.

However, foldable AMOLED screen will not so fast in the life of the people. Ya-qin li said, at present already mass production, will give apple and VIVO AMOLED screen fixed radius of curvature is 5 mm, margin of 0.7 mm, touch screen part is still a glass cover. The radius of the future will be smaller, border narrower, touch screen part will be the film cover plate. "Real collapsible OLED panel, should be in 2018 years later, will come to our life, so there was no flexible so close we think of."

Second, the domestic panel makers have no production of flexible OLED patents, once the mass production will be faced with the problem of patent in the international market. Samsung's patent far above all the other panel makers, reach more than 10000 items, more than ten times higher than domestic firms counts.

Third, the domestic form a complete set of equipment, material is not complete. Ya-qin li said that in the process of OLED production, almost all of the core material monopoly by foreign investment enterprises. "Because of material performance, equipment performance, usually by panel makers with materials, equipment manufacturers to jointly develop. This means that China's panel factory advance the OLED panel production process will be very difficult and long." Currently, the UDC, TaoShiHe Japan idemitsu kosan companies, such as the global AMOLED materials more than 80% share. "What's with these materials plant closer cooperation and common development, set up market specifications, this is China's panel factory is an important problem in the future."

In addition, the gap between OLED technology at home and abroad. A line tap panel makers OLED resolution has reached 400-500 ppi, even by the end of the 2 k products, meeting at the beginning of next year. And the yield reached a relatively stable normal levels. But the resolution of the OLED panel at home and the yield is still low. Behind it is the talent competition, the current domestic OLED talent from overseas, and South Korea, Japan has a very solid talent base.

To do a good job must first sharpen his device. Ya-qin li warned: "first, China should keep modest positive investment in OLED panel, and the investment to match with our product development, industrial chain construction. Second, because the AMOLED grew up quickly in the next few years, but in absolute capacity ratio remains low, so we want to find a way to Chinese industry still maintain the LCD industry vitality, and constantly looking for our own position in the AMOLED market."