McKinsey argues that science and technology driven trend will completely change industry participants to address consumer behavior change, development, cooperation and ways of boosting the transformational change. Automobile industry in the four strands of science and technology driven disruptive trends: diversification, self-driving travel, electric, intelligent interconnection. Automobile industry and expert opinion agree that the four big trend will intensify and accelerate each other. At the same time, the car industry has been mature enough, that makes it possible to disruptive change.

Although it is generally accepted that affects the whole industry is already under way disruptive change, but for the next 10 to 15 years for the auto industry how these trends will affect, there is no consistent view. To this end, we put forward "2030 car revolution" of eight views, aims to predict the auto industry will usher in change, and these changes to the traditional car manufacturers and suppliers, potential new market participants, regulators, consumers, market and industry value chain.

1, by sharing travel, Internet services and performance upgrade, the car industry's revenue will be due to a 30% increase in new business models, namely the increase of $1.5 trillion.

Income will increase by a wide margin, and the car industry and travel services and data driven towards on-demand services such as development direction of diversification. This will allow auto sales for an additional $1.5 trillion in 2030, equivalent to a 30% increase. Compared with the traditional car sales and after-sale products, services, income up to $5.2 trillion, more than $2015 in 3.5 trillion increased by 50%.

Smart + connected with automation technology will make the car more and more become a kind of platform, can make the drivers and passengers on the trip to enjoy new forms of media and services, or other personal activities will free up time to do.

Innovation, especially the speed based on the software of the system innovation, will require cars have can upgrade function. With the growing popularity of the short time sharing travel, consumers will always understand the progress of science and technology, which will further increase the demand of the private cars can upgrade performance.

2, although more and more people to share travel, car sales will continue to increase, but only in the lower growth rate of 2% a year.

Global car sales will continue to grow, but by 2030, sales growth fell to 2% from 3.6% over the past five years. This is mainly due to the effect of macroeconomic and car sharing and online called car travel service growth.

Detailed analysis shows that the densely populated, the area of car ownership is higher for a long time, is fertile ground for these emerging travel service, many European and north American cities and suburbs belong to this type. New travel services may result in car sales, but the less could be offset by Shared vehicle sales increase, the reason is that the latter utilization rate is higher, loss is bigger, often need to change.

Another factor to boost the growth of the global car sales is macro economic development momentum, including the increase of the global middle class consumers. Due to the mature market growth is slowing, global car sales growth will continue to rely on emerging economies, particularly China, at the same time different product portfolio resulted in the different revenue growth.

3, travel consumer behavior is changing. By the year 2030, every ten car sold in there is a car is Shared, and customized travel solutions based on user demand will also have a larger market.

Consumer preferences, a tighter regulation, changing factors such as technological breakthroughs have led to a significant shift in personal mobility. People are increasingly using a variety of complete travel, transportation of goods and services are sent to them, not by their own.

As a result, a series of diverse, on-demand travel plan will complement to the traditional sales mode, especially in densely populated, does not encourage the use of private cars in the cities.

Today's consumers will car as a universal tool, is used for commuting, also used for family outing. In the future, they may hope to be able to flexibly select the best way to travel for a particular purpose, and the choice with the smartphone.

We have noticed that some signs that have the importance of the private cars are falling: in America, the young (16-24 years old) holding a driver's license ratio decreased from 76% in 2000 to 71% in 2013, and in the past five years, north American and German car sharing service usage by more than 30% each year.

Consumers choose custom solutions according to different new habit, will create a special car for a specific purpose. , for example, dedicated to provide online call service car, the car utilization rate is high, the performance is strong, can accumulate extra mileage, and passenger comfort is higher, now already has millions of cars, and this is only the beginning.

Consumers turn to diversity as a result of travel plan, by 2030, in every ten car sold a is Shared car, this will reduce the sales of the private cars. This means that 30% of new cars sold travel mileage is from sharing. According to the trend, in 2050, out of every three car sold may have a car is Shared.

4, the types of city will replace the national or regional, be decided to travel behavior, namely motor revolution speed and scope of market segmentation dimensions.

To know opportunity in the future, and need to use than it used to be more careful in the perspective of the travel market. In particular, need to these markets by city type classification, main is to look at the density of population, economic development level and flourishing degree.

In all of these market segments, consumer preferences, policy and regulation, the availability and cost of the new business model there will be a very big difference.

Big cities such as London, for example, owning a car is a burden for many people, mainly because the need to pay the congestion charge, the lack of parking space, traffic congestion and other factors. On the contrary, in rural areas, such as the United States of Iowa, so far, private car is still the preferred transportation.

City types, therefore, will replace the traditional to the practice of regional perspective travel market segment, become an important index on travel behavior. By 2030, the state of New York automobile market will likely with Shanghai, rather than the more similar of Kansas.

5, once the technology and regulatory issues resolved, 15% of new car sales in 2030 has the potential to completely automated driving.

Fully automated driving vehicles in 2020 is unlikely before the commercial sales. At the same time, advanced driving assistance systems (ADAS) will play an important role, help regulators, consumers and businesses ready to gradually let the car to replace the driver.

ADAS listed have shown that hinder the faster market penetration of the main challenges from pricing, consumer awareness and safety/security issues. As for the technical preparation, technology companies and start-ups may also in the development of self-driving cars play an important role.

Regulation and consumer acceptance is likely to be another obstacle of self-driving cars. However, once these problems are solved, self-driving cars will bring great value for consumers (for example, in the commute on the way the ability to work, or in the course of the journey is convenient to use social media or watching a movie).

Fully automated driving a car will gradually increase until accounted for 15% of global passenger car sales in 2030.

6 and enhancing the feasibility of electric vehicles, the competitiveness of ascension; However, consumers to accept speed is significant difference in different areas.

More stringent emission regulations, low battery costs, more universal charging infrastructure and higher consumer acceptance for electric vehicles (hybrid, plug-in, battery electric and fuel cells) in the next few years in the market penetration to create new strong momentum.

Consumers to accept speed will depend on the purchase of a constitution (the part with the total cost of the vehicle driven by the individual) and the driver of the regulatory interactions, which will have significant differences in different regions and local levels.

By 2030, the proportion of electric vehicles could account for between 10% and 50% of new car sales. Accept the highest rate will be developed in the densely populated cities, there are stringent emission regulations and consumer incentives (tax breaks, special parking and driving privileges, preferential price, etc.).