Academician Yang thinks, analysis the advantage of new energy vehicles, electricity and oil is to analysis the energy costs, and new energy vehicles - including pure electric and hybrid two forms, are included in the system are discussed.

Has been to Yang academicians of the electric car industry kept close attention recently in a speech again, the current domestic electric car subsidies and price calculation. As early as last July, Yang academicians have made clear that the unit of the subsidized prices have been high battery production cost, led to the chaos of the electric car industry: enterprise forcibly mount, battery installation, technology development can not get too much attention, and deformity of the terminal market. Academician Yang thinks, analysis the advantage of new energy vehicles, electricity and oil is to analysis the energy costs, and new energy vehicles - including pure electric and hybrid two forms, are included in the system are discussed.

Full member of the following is a Yang speech, the total length of a total of about 8000 words --

Dear comrades, I was in xinjiang make nuclear test in the twenty-seventh year and a half, so I am a nuclear experts, then because of the fast to 60 years old, let me back to Beijing, back to Beijing was elected academicians, don't let retirement, so I will do some batteries work, do a decade later, in the battery will come into contact with electric cars, so what do think in terms of battery electric vehicle development, so just start for electric cars is how to return a responsibility, you know.

In the contact of more than ten years, more and more feel the electric car is very important and very hard, for our country some route and related policy about the development of the electric car often attention, also published a number of opinions, some opinions are also supported by some comrades, there are a few people don't agree with me, I think it is very natural. Practice is the sole criterion for testing truth, however, from the point of these years, I feel some of my views or pass that test. In the answer to the question of the subsidy policy about 67 years ago, I will focus on, also before and after the world expo in Shanghai. World expo held in Shanghai two years ago, a 12 m pure power bus to sell 1.6 million, less than a year, to Shanghai, is selling 1.9 million. Earlier in the year when the world expo, Shanghai, 2.2 million, in the three months before the opening of the expo, 2.6 million.

From that time I felt the subsidies and price of electric cars, the problem of too much. Because of a 12 m bus need two tons of batteries, according to the price at that time, the battery may count down at around 800000. So why all of a sudden it to 2.6 million, and a regular bus is probably around 500000, the state subsidies in 500000, local subsidies for another 500000, 1 million. Why is so high, from the beginning I will begin to pay close attention to this problem. What's the basis of so I have been calling for 12 m pure electric bus to sell 2.6 million, I speak the words in a lot of meeting, probably touch some people's interests. There is a problem but I still think the subsidies. But today I want to say words, today there are a lot of officials of our comrades and discuss with us together very well.

But I will, on many occasions to participate in is so I often encounter, meeting the officials to launch policy, please talk to them first, and went away after finished, then behind you say what he doesn't listen to, and he doesn't want to listen to, he also can't hear, so I published some articles, published a number of narration, the role. Then I figured it out slowly, not only is this, because there are many especially in four ministries and commissions of the central officials, they all considered themselves experts, he also experts than you, he's better than your problem considering the overall and deep consideration of what you said so a layman, why should I listen to you? So the whole process over the years, I always feel for policy said a lot of problem, you can double or something a little Yang or member of Yang, there are a lot of reports.

But the effect was bad, I feel or want to speak, so the professor asked me to come to the meeting, I said that I attend. Everybody together to discuss what should our country electric vehicle development. So today I speak of the subsidy policy reform, the development of the electric car, actually still feel we state subsidies policy must change. I am going to talk about three questions below. The first is the electric car review of 15 years, the second is how to change the electric car subsidy policy, the third is to use good mature cells, development of good much starker choices-and graver consequences-in marketable electric cars. This is what I want to talk about three issues.

A, about electric car fifteen years of review

First, our country electric car development of fifteen years my overall assessment is mixed

Half of the so-called xi is the key technology has improved, key parts and vehicle industrial base has been gradually established. By the end of 2015, China's total sales of new energy electric vehicles could reach more than 40 units. Now said in 497000, I for the number there is doubt, I think yan director might agree with me that. Because the registration number and the amount of sales in, there in the first ten months of this year was 70000, the behind of the expenses actually has a lot of imaginary inside, so I said can't take the old things. But at least we have the electric car is the development of faster, but also tried a lot of running mode, but we should also see the problems, so I said mixed.

Someone don't agree with my opinion of half-open, I think this is not the main problem. Problems is in the middle of the tens of billions of subsidies, and quite a number of local government subsidies, to promote the electric car market formed the effect not beautiful. The second is a lot of pure electric bus are grown. Could have 150 km or 200 km, and soon they became 80 kilometers or 50 kilometers, and some simply can't go any farther, so that in 497000, how many future failure of the first, how many "PaWo", I think it's well worth the statistics, and this kind of phenomenon is spreading, I think this problem of sudden growth last year, the years of warehouse storage unqualified batteries are all sold out, this batch of battery sell, not only not long service life, and the risk is very big. So the "PaWo" problems and premature aging will continue to spread, and a second set of no battery. The third problem is a lot of people get preferential policies, the plug-ins as a fuel car use, sell the battery, so this is also a kind of the expenses. Fourth is Beijing Shanghai hundreds of congenital deficiency of fuel cell electric vehicles are now in sleep, some modified lithium ion battery, this is actually reduces the worth, not because of the price of subsidies.

Second, the electric car development of 15 years of experience and lessons

I have a long article to the problem, here I'd like to briefly talk about the outline.

The first is the swing development route, and not sure, this is the first lesson. The general is to sum up, 15 years three five-year plan changed three key. During the fifteen in fuel cell electric vehicles, as the key as the first. Then follow US President George w. bush, bush think this is the final light energy. In the 11th five-year plan, become the key support car hybrid electric car, some companies and Japanese companies to get Japan's technology, even bought back assembly of Japan. Prius was more mature, and later found these signs, we have a lot of people are against the hybrid, because this is actually followed the Japanese, the Japanese have patent, at a time when its patents are more than one hundred, the hybrid seal now, then there is the electrical and mechanical processing level of our country is very difficult to do the core parts of new gear well. So feel we should be prepared for their electric cars in our country. So in the twelfth five-year, pure electric as a key. Because the three five-year plan focused on the swing.

The second lesson is that there is no level of the battery as the basis of electric vehicles is obtained. This problem I also see, just when it comes to the prius, he is now 8 million, he used nimh batteries than energy is 50 watts per kilogram, but because he has a core technology emerging gear and important technology is electric control, the control to do a good job.

So using these two techniques, the motive power of the fuel and electricity power made a perfect cooperation. So the car can save the province to 35% to 40%, so not how many batteries, have the nimh batteries to use it well, give full play to the role of the battery, but not with the our country, so here I mainly speak to automobile comrades, but when lithium ion battery to achieve fronted watts per kilogram, taller than nimh batteries nearly doubled, the battery no good, they just make what pure electric, electric, with such batteries will certainly encounter a series of problems in the end. So there is no battery level as to make the basis of the electric car development route, is actually out of our most fundamental design now.

The third is a high subsidies and there is no requirement. Subsidies to the enterprise is very high but there is no requirement, are you willing to do what to do, so the electric car market. Subsidies are not clear, the car right now is not trading, automobile factory don't accept orders now, this is not a recent one, happened twice already, this is the third time, not according to the market, looking at subsidies, looked at policy and decide what to do, this is a very bad thing.

The fourth question is out of the differences between town and country actually. Focused on electric cars in big cities, has repeatedly suppress microminiature low-speed electric car, it is our great experience and lessons.

The fifth is to confuse or industrialization phase electric car technology research. Research and industrialization which is associated with two stages, but there's a difference, in the middle are two different stages, we speak of science and technology three vertical and three horizontal, three vertical and said to the three five-year plan changed three key. I for an example of image, like to play rubik's cube, three vertical and continuously turn there, in fact, it was okay, but the ministry of science and technology for industrialization of very positive, industrialization, ministry of science and technology is actively involved in actually he take three longitudinal study phase to the industrialization of the inside, so lead to what a mess of things.

The sixth lesson is not passion to new things, reflect the slow. Management level can't keep up with the objective situation, we don't form a complete set of corresponding policies and measures, minivans in several provinces to develop so fast, without formation of form a complete set of corresponding policies and regulations, this mini does not require licences, does not require the driver to take an examination of the traffic rules, in this case accident happened some accident, was struck the people he hit people, finally come down in low-speed electric car is unsafe, with the words from the word doesn't make sense, the higher the speed is not safe, how the low speed the unsafe.

But in fact, is not keep up with the management, so take a look at our imposed subsidies what are the consequences of the highest in the world.

One consequence was the highest of automobile production enterprises eventually subsidies pure electric bus a one-way ticket, the battery pack more subsidies is high, the ultimate security is low. Just host to speak for car companies, said profit is their nature, I think this message is to is wrong, the gentleman the love of money take youdao, can only take money youdao, old take advantage of the loopholes in the policy to be a gentleman? Or entrepreneur was not a gentleman, the words also can't so to speak, is a large hit. But there was no request to the enterprise policy, this is the very high subsidies.

Consequences # 2 is under no obligation to automobile manufacturing enterprises want to interests, don't want to go to reduce the cost to build market, it is deliberately push up prices, not to think about electric cars to the transition of subsidies, direction, with a high subsidies palm, I had mentioned in a report that is lying there to eat meat, and eat the fat, why did he want to fuck you sweat, so there is no obligation to no, rights and obligations must complement each other.

How to change an electric car subsidy policy # e#

The third consequence is most of the subsidies into profits of auto enterprise, ordinary taxpayers' money supply for a few people, artificially caused social injustice. We know yutong is very famous, he get subsidies last year was 6.8565 billion, his shareholder dividends is 3.22 billion, which is unique in our auto industry, over the years my profits for the auto industry to do the statistics, the less is the profit margin of 2%, is 5%, to 8% May not be able to, and the high profit is ridiculous, that is, subsidies for the audience, pay the tax in the shareholders' pockets inside, although I have a eighty-five - year - old don't pay taxes, but I'll put you love dearly.

Consequences of the four is the government financial burden is too heavy, and stimulating the development of electric cars, and even delay the speed of development. The consequences of the five is strange. 6 m electric china-pakistan only sell one yuan a, as long as the invoice one yuan can get subsidies, 12 m bus to sell more than 200, this is because the battery may much more to add. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles bought as a fuel car use; Then there is the expenses scandal. These strange things happen and high subsidies have internal relations, and incomplete subsidy policy has a direct relationship. This is the first question I want to say.

Second, how to reform the electric car subsidy policy

Four ministries and commissions formally announced the policy last year, three months before officially announced, released a draft on the net, I saw the later gave their opinions, according to the subsidy policy, much starker choices-and graver consequences-in subsidies to 480 billion. Policy comes out after, I again said is expected to be around $390 billion, or absorbed by my opinion, lost 90 billion. There was still no including local subsidies, in fact, many cities have now can't afford to subsidies. At the end of last year in Beijing have a meeting, the meeting, transport department about public transport subsidies this problem, please a guangzhou, Shanghai, wuhan cities, I remember, also including our nanjing said they were good in the development of new energy vehicles, subsidies in place. Make a few do on behalf of the rich city, is in place, a place subsidy support the subsidies, I feel a bit superficial.

In fact a lot of places can't afford to fill. So why so much, mainly is the pure electric bus fill high, real car is not low, but the main or pure electric bus subsidies are too high. Gave the director yan to articles, I quite agree with, 6 m to 8 m car subsidy of 300000, 600000 plus local subsidies, the cost is about 400000 or so, including a battery inside, this problem is turned upside down, looking back is failed to pass the elementary arithmetic, so the subsidy policy reform, the electric car will not be able to healthy development. In may last year announced policy, July 8 members we open a member of congress, we discuss 19 academicians filed with the government suggested that because of suggestion is a kind of system.

This time we dozen old man, with an average age of seventy-eight years old, why speak of age, we are these people after the great leap forward, the people's commune, here may not be very understanding, the great leap forward to the society is a mess, mess up the economy, we can feel the electric car so now fill down, is actually a great leap forward, so we think to mention suggestion, therefore on July 8th, the last submitted a proposal for the government, the topic is "total control electric car subsidy clear enterprise development responsibility", the people you can find it on the Internet. Suggest that there are three main content of the article: the first for much starker choices-and graver consequences-in electric car total subsidy of the state council set an upper limit, fill how much need to calculate again, do not let the four ministries with the count. The second is clear all the responsibility of the automobile production enterprises, implement appropriate subsidies, responsibility index, excess prize, to promote the production, this four sentences. The third is to continue to strengthen support for electric vehicle technology innovation and development.

I explain this four sentences simple, appropriate subsidies, is much starker choices-and graver consequences-in continue to subsidise the electric car, but the amount to reduce, and to accelerate TuiPo.

So-called responsibility index, excess prize, to promote the production, the three sentences is reference of policy measures in California, it is the core content of requirements car makers in California sales of passenger vehicles must contain a certain proportion of small cars zero zero emissions vehicle emissions or in part, demand into the sales of cars in California in 2020 should have zero discharge of 6% and 3.5% of zero emissions, according to how much the integral desert, California, this is American way. At that time, many of our comrades have noted that the rules, so feel this way to draw lessons from, this is called mountain can offend jade, which is a percentage of sales each factory must be electric, how sales, must meet the requirements of the market, in accordance with the market-oriented ideas, development of electric vehicles.

Our Suggestions from July 8, about half a year didn't get a response, don't know where have suggested. So some comrades said academician should have more advice, we would like to, but it's no use, we also know that their energy is not big, big energy is not age. Until the subsidies after the scandal, which brought to the attention of the subsidy policy, so the state council executive meeting on 14 February this year, put forward five decision, everybody knows. I'm more interested in for generations, this is the first article, inside the battery to replace subsidies with awards, now of the state council executive meeting decided how to perform, are discussing scheme, this scheme is quite difficult, opinion is not easy to unify, is actually not easy unified opinions, the first is do not have a unified view, it is said that there are three schemes submitted leadership finalized, this may not be quite sure, because the submit leadership finalized, take out three as a reference, not quite sure, but there are three solutions.

I think should be in accordance with the spirit of the state council executive meeting, it must adhere to market-oriented and innovation drive, it is very important, how to adhere to market-oriented, specific what to do, replace subsidies with awards, exactly how to practice, I think it is crucial to the inside of the new subsidies, this is not me, it is a state council executive meeting five important points inside me, according to these two points I put forward the following ideas:

The first is the battery every kilowatt subsidy must be less than the market price of every kilowatt. Now is the other way round, such as power type lithium ion battery is now around $170000 kilowatt-hour, subsidies of 1800 yuan, now stage before the news on the net, we can see that the market price in about 2200 yuan once electricity, subsidies of 2470 yuan, this in fact is to make the car have legitimate expenses opportunity, battery pack, the more the more subsidies, can get profit from inside battery price difference. So I said that from the first, must be lower than subsidies subsidies money, so you can't in to install batteries, if hard pack battery will increase the weight, increase of energy consumption, more unnecessary battery with subsidies.

The second is the automotive enterprise sales in 2016 of new energy vehicles must be accounted for more than 1%, subsidies can be attained. This limitation must have, imitate the way to California, USA, less than 1% will be fined, proactive planning can make enterprise in the production of reasonable price sell electric car. Article 3 the plug-in and a program is passenger car or commercial vehicle fuel consumption in the hybrid of use should be is lower than the national standard of conventional fuel automobile consumption 35%, to get subsidies. Originally posted on the bus in the standard is 35%, passenger car is 20%, I think should be unified for 35%, oil-saving must be greater than 35%, otherwise the plug-in or increase the program cannot get subsidies, because they didn't achieve the oil-saving effect significantly. 35% and Japan actually prius was flat, the prius our country does not give subsidies, this is what I said to the second question.

The third problem is to use good mature cells, development of good much starker choices-and graver consequences-in marketable electric cars.

First is to use good mature cells, development of electric vehicles.

So-called increase program pure electric motor car, the electric car is their own generators and that in many of my articles in all its advantages, the biggest characteristic is in charge, under the condition of saving more than 50%, this is the result of actual measurement. But some people don't believe what can be done, put oil power generation, electricity to power again, two conversion efficiency will not so high, in fact two transformation problem is not so return a responsibility, and up to 50% more fuel-efficient car fuel compared to increase program body little more than half of the internal combustion engine power, ordinary car need only 0.7 litres, the i3 is 0.7 liter displacement, actually only 670 ml, such small fuel-efficient many displacement.

Internal combustion engine adjustment under the condition of constant power of the best energy-saving work, adjust to the constant power, high efficiency, low power and high power to satisfy the condition of high fuel efficiency. Can recycling deceleration and braking energy, ordinary cars met a red light, the efficiency of internal combustion engine is zero, the traffic efficiency is very low, will not happen in the car, it can be the generator of electric charge to the battery. The fourth is to use rechargeable electric beforehand, if we do not charge in advance or without charge, can also be fuel-efficient, probably less than 5%.

Director yan in the car to urumqi, two of the 12 m bus on average is 16.3 litres of 100 km, the two imported car counterparts are 32 litres of 100 kilometers, twice energy conversion is the decimal, actually in the whole energy conservation is not proportion of obviously, so the test result is reliable, by the way are through two transformations, the electric car electric power plants using coal to generate electricity, the heat energy to electricity, electricity to the batteries inside, the inside of the battery to the generator drive the car, and the second transformation. Car first transformation without actually doing in power plants, is on the car, the efficiency is higher than in power plant, the high efficiency of the internal combustion engine mentioned, by the way can increase program car without charge, then use the car oil, from saving more than 50% to more than 50%, just said the two cars is hosted by the ministry of communications a trip down the silk road culture, without charging pile, no plants, use a program can be a lot of fuel-efficient car, which solves the difficulty greatly charging.

Advantage program car will not repeat, everyone can refer to related information, and increase the program electric cars are most likely to transition to no subsidies. The reckoning, batteries because they use less, it's battery is equivalent to about 40% of the pure electric vehicles, so the cost is lower, plus high saving rate, with the savings money subsidies initially bought batteries, about two years can be retrieved. It will need to change ideas, to be willing to part with or use money with fuel-efficient money subsidies batteries, rather than always thinking about buying a car is cheap and good, subsidies and more, so the car difficult to sell. Everyone should be in the interests of the nation, consider how to develop electric cars, achieve energy conservation and emissions reduction, had the guiding ideology, not some illegal enterprises want to from the thoughts of national waters. Increases the programs of the car in our country can develop, one is the bus can be use this car, achieve energy conservation and emissions reduction, the second is a taxi, yesterday I heard that the country has 1.35 million, 400 km a day, a car is equivalent to 10 a passenger car.

In Beijing, the 500 pure electric taxi ran in the suburbs, not in the city, because can't satisfy the requirements, to charge about one hundred dozens of kilometers, a little farther distance is not run, but inside the city pollution is serious, need to energy conservation and emissions reduction of car, but Beijing must get pure electric, hybrid program car refused. I have wrote Beijing municipal party committee secretary of the letter, the newspaper has published an article, but no response. Coach is very potential, its fuel consumption is big, moreover passenger car, our country has promised to fall below 100 km five liters in 2030, since the promise will do speak out, thickening of the program is a very good way, there is a truck, fuel consumption is very large, our country has to truck started seriously, Canadian companies have to increase the program truck. At a conference last year, he did. So the truck is a great fuel efficiency.

The second is to use the public needs car lead-acid battery development.

Public what kind of car you are likely to be very clear, but now has different views to the lead-acid battery, think he is old, backward, there is pollution, but now lead-acid batteries with new technology, to look at it, right now, every car has a lead-acid battery, after you get off the pollution? Now called pollution and lead poisoning in production process of the problem is caused by bad management regulation, the recent three years from the government, industry association is also trying to, this two or three years had the very big change. Make great changes. I saw several factories, not many workers, are automatic production equipment. Now there are many new technologies, such as lead and graphene alloy to solve the problems of corrosion and softening in the sheeting. Lead-acid batteries with carbon alloy to solve the problem of the cathode sulphates. The two problems to solve, greatly extend the life of the lead-acid battery problem. Real hair production recovery have solved the problem of dust pollution, improve the recovery rate.

On October 14 last month to a batch of 2016 national standardization management committee has established the national standard for public opinion, in this private low-speed electric passenger cars has gone to the base condition, which is the car might soon have a technical standard, namely can legally production, so much starker choices-and graver consequences-in have a column with lead-acid battery low-speed car development, but also can use lithium ion batteries. So the traffic administrative department should formulate measures for the administration of mind low-speed electric cars. Other logistics vehicles, special vehicle, sightseeing car, cruise ships are likely to rapid development of the lead-acid battery with good words. The third is the fuel car to change the micro mixing, all this will not tell. The micro mixing is rev. Stop that kind of.

There also have the problem of subsidies, and now one when it comes to make start-stop type, need 1500 yuan, the micro mixing is about 3000 dollars, increasing this money and need subsidies, subsidies as much as they need to is wrong, because it can fuel section to about 5% to 8%, the two oil-saving rate can quickly get the 1500 or 3000 more money back. Not able to do something is about to subsidies, subsidies will do nothing, the bad habit, bad it to raise enterprise jiao, the technical personnel also spoil jiao.

Third, about much starker choices-and graver consequences-in new energy prediction to the development of the car

Pure electric vehicle battery has a large amount, high price much starker choices-and graver consequences-in inside the life of the pure electric passenger cars may not be very long, and the second battery without landing, so may appear "PaWo" climax, inferior quality of battery or low battery supply last year also sell go out, in fact, the battery on the market have a lot of expiration, the accident probability has a tendency to rise. Subsidies to reduce, pure electric passenger car sales may decline in going to happen, and this is one of my predictions. About to add programs, policy for thirty-five percent finally the difficulty of the implementation is quite large, the plug-in is very difficult, need a good effort.

In addition it has two sets of power system, the weight is bigger, the cost is higher, the subsidies gradually lose advantage of back fill, if it is not a good improve level, plug-in may produce crisis, so I think make plug-in company will as soon as possible to increase the program, there is interlinked, technically to early, because the sooner the initiative. Third, full mixing and deep mixing, it is just the prius, used to buy from the prius assembly components come back, I don't agree, if we are able to develop, to break through the prius patents, with independent property rights, I think this kind of up to 30% more fuel-efficient car to less than 40%, is worthy of development.

Geely's boss, what are they doing this car to say at the meeting last month, I think is a very good direction, because he is nimh batteries, security is better. So also I think safety first, don't one-sided pursuit of high energy battery, pure electric vehicles don't go for long distance, this will increase the unsafe factors. A: finally, I want to clear the current battery level determines how much starker choices-and graver consequences-in electric vehicle industry development direction, rather than beyond now battery level to pursue and the so-called high quality electric vehicles, electric vehicles should be battery level, the development trend of so much starker choices-and graver consequences-in or my old saying: to develop the program of pure electric vehicles and miniature short-range pure electric vehicles, say that I have more than five years, I hope again, I think this sentence is withstand test.